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Glenview Market Update: Bear Market Primer

If the trends hold, the market is likely to reach bear market territory for the S&P 500, defined as 20% or more below the previous high. While many cross-currents are causing the current sell-off, the proximate cause of the recent acceleration in the stock declines revolves around fears about the U.S. consumer. Both Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) reported disappointing earnings this week. Target was down 25% yesterday after the poor earnings report. Looking at the numbers from the two retailers, the reality is that both reported higher revenues (sales) versus the sales quarter last year, so the consumer is still spending. That being said, all was not well since both reported lower earnings. For the first time in the post-covid period, retailers have been stuck with some excess inventories. Costs due to inflation are also taking their toll on their earnings. Lastly, there is evidence that the lower-end consumer

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