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Monitoring Inflation

Is Runaway Inflation a Threat? For we can fly, we can fly up, up and awayMy beautiful, my beautiful balloon              Lyrics by Jimmy Webb and recorded by the 5th Dimension The recently reported April U.S. consumer inflation (CPI) reading at 4.2% year-over-year was the fastest pace since 2008. This rapid increase gave rise to concerns that inflation could be getting out of control in the wake of massive stimulus to combat the impact of the COVID-related economic shutdowns. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to view the recent spike in inflation as “transitory.” This piece analyzes the current inflation data and outlines the indicators Glenview is watching to judge the situation. The reopening of the economy has caused some of the upward inflation pressures (Chart 1). Airline fares, car rental, and hotel costs have rebounded due to increased travel, with TSA throughput at the highest level

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Wealth Insights – April 2021

What a Long, Strange Trip It’s Been “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana, Philosopher, 1863 ‐ 1952 At a little more than one year past the COVID and lockdown‐induced stock market low, it seems like an appropriate time to look at how this recession differs from a more typical business cycle and the implications of those differences. The most significant difference was that a governmentmandated lockdown of businesses was the cause of this collapse in economic activity. Recessions are typically caused by economic overheating or an extraneous shock, like soaring oil prices, rather than government decree. The sudden stop in the economy caused employment to plunge. Both the pace and amount of job losses were breathtaking in specific segments of the workforce (Chart 1). Due to government restrictions and consumers’ avoidance of in‐person services and travel, hospitality and leisure jobs were almost cut

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