The S&P 500 reached a new high as fears stemming from tariffs and geopolitics have faded. Stocks are priced for a benign economic outcome and some support from the Fed.

The average return on the stocks is negative for the week and month after geopolitical conflicts. The economic risk is higher oil prices, a headwind to global growth.

Allowing big winners to grow is a proven strategy employed by Buffett and Munger. The magic behind the strategy and the risks of concentrated positions are examined.

During the rebound from the early April lows, stocks have been highly correlated with economic data. A range of economic indicators is examined to assess recession risk.

Jaime Dimon warned of a coming crisis in the bond market due to the growing US national debt. The evidence of an imminent crisis is examined in the US and globally.

Regardless of the outcome of the tariff litigation, tariffs are likely to continue in some form. Falling recession odds and AI spending continue to send stocks higher.